Disgusted registered independent voters in New York could cause a “political earthquake” in this fall’s election – including the governor’s race, say sources citing data from a recent Siena College poll.
Nearly a quarter of the state’s 13 million voters – nearly 3 million, or 23% – are registered as not affiliated with any political party.
It’s slightly more than the state’s 2.84 million registered Republicans, though Democrats still have a huge enrollment advantage. There are 6.47 million registered dignitaries, or about one in two voters, in New York, according to the State Electoral Council.
The recent poll showed that given the number of New York independents – and what they had to say about the state of the state – incumbents, including Governor Kathy Hochul, could have problems.
According to the poll, 62% of independents believe that the state is on the wrong track.
Meanwhile, the Democratic-led state Senate was viewed favorably by only 26% of registered independents surveyed, and the Democratic-controlled Assembly did not fare much better, with 34% of surveyed independents considering it favorable.
Crime in New York has risen sharply in recent months. Robert Miller
To make matters worse, moderate and conservative Democrats do not always vote for their party candidate amid rising violent crime, which is again a recent scourge, and post-pandemic quality of life issues.
“It could be a political earthquake in New York,” said veteran political adviser Hank Sheinkopf.
“Republicans have a path to victory,” he said. “Crime is the most important issue among voters in the state. For independent voters, crime and government performance matter. The question is whether Republicans can form an alliance and make independents appear. ”
The independents interviewed were particularly negative about Democrat Hochul’s job performance.
Governor Kathy Hochul had a weak poll among independents surveyed. Paul Martinka
About two-thirds of independents have so far rated their governor’s record as right or wrong. Hochul took over the top political post in the state in August 2021, after former governor Andrew Cuomo resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal.
On specific issues, 74% of independents rated Hochul right or wrong in the fight against crime, 72% right or wrong in terms of managing the economy, 73% right or wrong in terms of restoring confidence in the government, 71 % correct for poor driving and 61% correct or poor for recovery COVID-19.
If Hochul is nominated for the Democratic Party, 30% of independents said they would support it, while 48% said they would prefer someone else.
Only 38% of the group viewed Hochul favorably, 37% unfavorably, and the rest undecided.
Only 30% of independents said they would support Hochul if she became a Democratic Party nominee. Stefan Ieremia
Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said it’s a difficult environment for incumbents, and in New York it means mostly Democrats, who control all levels of government and two-thirds of the congressional delegation.
He noted that the recent poll found that the percentage of voters who say New York was on the wrong track was the highest since 2010. Fifty-two percent said New York is on the wrong track in the recent poll and only 36 percent they said he was heading in the right direction.
“Voters are generally not in a good mood. All candidates – especially Democrats – could be in a hurt world, “said Greenberg.
Representative Lee Zeldin is the alleged Republican candidate for governor. AP / John Minchillo
Hochul, the alleged Democratic Party nominee, is a big favorite to win her primary battle against two major rivals: Long Rep. Tom Suozzi, who is running on her right as a candidate for public order, and Jumaane Williams, the city’s public lawyer, who is running for her left.
GOP candidates include Long Island Representative Lee Zeldin, the alleged nominee, former Trump White House councilor Andrew Giuliani, former Westchester County executive Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson.